Abu Dhabi: peace in 24 hours, extended until further notice

The first round of talks between Ukraine, the US and Russia since February took place in Abu Dhabi on 10 November 2026. For almost four hours they discussed security guarantees and Europe’s post-war architecture, even though Russia will not agree even to a ceasefire – and on the night before the meeting it launched 162 drones and a ballistic missile at Ukraine.

If you need a shorter summary, the words of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will do: “This is not something that can be resolved in the next 24 hours.”

In brief

• Delegations from Ukraine, the US and Russia talked for almost four hours in Abu Dhabi on 10 November 2026. It was the first such round since February; a continuation is planned for 11 November.
• On the night before the talks, Russia attacked Ukraine with 162 drones and an Iskander-M missile (data from Ukraine’s Air Force).
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected a ceasefire and wants first to settle the “parameters of the future security architecture”.
• Jared Kushner claims that Putin is ready for peace on certain conditions. According to Volodymyr Zelensky, the US asked Kyiv whether it would trade Donbas for security.
• Ukraine proposed a truce in the Black Sea and in the energy sector. The day after Donald Trump announced an “energy ceasefire” on 11 October, Russia, according to Zelensky, attacked six energy facilities.

It has been known for centuries that when the guns speak, diplomats fall silent. In Abu Dhabi they decided to test what happens if both speak at once. The result of the experiment: the guns are easier to hear.

The first round of trilateral talks since February lasted almost four hours. They discussed security guarantees, humanitarian issues, post-war reconstruction and the “future security architecture in Europe”. US envoy Jared Kushner announced mechanisms intended to prevent a “renewed escalation of the conflict”. An ambitious plan, considering that the current escalation has not yet taken a single day off.

A look at the calendar of recent days is enough. In early November, a Russian attack on a humanitarian aid distribution point in Zaporizhzhia region killed 55 people, according to Zelensky. On the night of 7–8 November, strikes on the energy system cut power to more than 600,000 residents of Dnipropetrovsk region (DTEK data) and almost 250,000 customers in Kharkiv region. A day before the talks, Russia launched 317 drones at Ukraine, and its defence ministry itself boasted of an attack on four electrical substations. On the night before the meeting itself came another 162 drones and an Iskander-M ballistic missile, with hits recorded in 19 locations. That is what Russia’s contribution to the “trust necessary to achieve a peaceful settlement” that Kushner talks about looks like.

Agreeing security guarantees with a state that refuses to stop shooting even for the duration of the talks is like discussing a rehabilitation plan with a man who is still stabbing the patient with a knife. And who announces that he will not put the knife down until the hospital changes its rules.

Carl von Clausewitz taught that war is the continuation of politics by other means. The Kremlin has reversed the formula: for it, negotiations are the continuation of war by other means. That is why it sees no reason to interrupt one for the sake of the other.

Rubio’s sentence sounds particularly good coming from the chief diplomat of a president who, before the election, promised at least 53 times, by CNN’s count, to end this war in 24 hours or even before taking office. In April 2025 Donald Trump explained to Time magazine that he had been speaking figuratively and in jest. That day has now lasted more than 650 days.

On the other side of the table, time is counted differently. The Russian delegation is led by Vladimir Medinsky – the same Putin adviser who in May 2025 in Istanbul reportedly told the Ukrainians: “We fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?” The words were quoted by The Economist’s correspondent, citing a source in the negotiating room. Medinsky himself later talked about the 21 years of the Great Northern War on Russian television.

So one side counts this war in hours, the other in decades. At such a table, the one in a hurry loses – and the only one not in a hurry is Russia. This was already evident in September, when Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner came back from Putin with three days of silence over Kyiv and nothing more.

Jared Kushner announces that Putin is ready for peace “on certain conditions”. Congratulations on the discovery. Every aggressor in history has been ready for peace on certain conditions. Hitler was too, in Munich in 1938. The condition is always the same: to get what he came for.

What those conditions are, we know from Volodymyr Zelensky. The Ukrainian president revealed that the Americans had asked Kyiv whether it would be ready to “trade Donbas for security”. His answer was:

“Nobody believes that Putin will stop if we give up Donbas. Maybe he will take a break, but then he will come back: in a year, in two or in five years. And who will be to blame then?”

– Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, 10 November 2026

Meanwhile, the Russians ask Ukrainians and Europeans whether they “sincerely” want peace. The arsonist checking with the firefighters whether they really want to put out the fire.

Kushner himself is upbeat:

“Today’s constructive talks in Abu Dhabi give us encouragement. In line with President Donald Trump’s guidance, we are working to end this destructive war and to create the necessary security mechanisms that will ensure Ukraine’s sovereignty, security and prosperity, and lasting peace for all of Europe.”

– Jared Kushner, US Special Envoy, post on X, 10 November 2026

There is no shortage of encouragement. The only thing missing is Russia’s consent to anything that might justify it.

Sergei Lavrov laid his cards on the table without beating about the bush: “We will not agree to another ceasefire without knowing what comes next.” He called the European demand for an immediate ceasefire an attempt to buy time for Kyiv. Instead, he considered it absolutely reasonable first to settle the “clear parameters of the future security architecture” and only then to deal with the war itself. Translated from diplomatic language: let’s talk about NATO first, and Ukraine can wait. Under fire.

The phrase about “buying time” is worth remembering, because it was the most honest thing Lavrov said that day. Russia does not want a truce because shelling is its bargaining chip. Every night without electricity in Dnipro or Kharkiv is, for the Kremlin, another paragraph of its negotiating position.

The proposal itself is not new. It is the ultimatum of December 2021, that is, the demand to roll back the Alliance’s infrastructure to its 1997 state. Two months later, Russian columns set off for Kyiv. Back then the West said “no”. Today, as The Washington Post reported, US envoys agreed even before the talks to include Europe’s security architecture in the package – something Washington and its NATO allies had opposed until now. Kushner even announced a five-point plan, in which he assures that NATO will remain the foundation of collective defence and that no state will get a veto over other countries’ alliances. Lavrov wants first to agree how much of that foundation will remain.

As if that were not enough, according to a source close to the Ukrainian delegation in Abu Dhabi, security guarantees for Russia were also discussed “separately”. Yes, you read that right. A state that has been bombing its neighbour for the fifth year wants guarantees that it can sleep soundly itself.

To the Europeans who did fly to Abu Dhabi, the head of Russian diplomacy pointed out their place: since they are here anyway, “let them sit in the hotel”. Rubio, meanwhile, says that Washington’s goal is to bring Europe to the table. For now, the only room Europe is guaranteed in Abu Dhabi is a hotel room.

The funniest thing – if that is the right word – is the very slogan of “security guarantees”. Ukraine already has a whole collection of them. Including some with a Russian signature.

In the Budapest Memorandum of 5 December 1994, Russia, the US and the UK undertook to respect the independence, sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine and to refrain from the threat or use of force against it. In return, Kyiv gave up the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal. The English version of the document speaks of “assurances”, the Ukrainian and Russian versions of “guarantees”. Russia broke both versions: twenty years later it seized Crimea.

The second exhibit is Minsk II, signed on 12 February 2015. The ceasefire took effect at midnight on 15 February. Three days later, Ukrainian soldiers were withdrawing from Debaltseve, because the Russians and their “separatists” had decided that the truce did not apply to that particular town.

That is why Zelensky speaks of real mechanisms that will prevent the war from breaking out again, and the Ukrainian delegation, according to a source quoted by Ukrainska Pravda, keeps repeating what is obvious to anyone who is not a special envoy: the war must be stopped first. A guarantee written under fire is worth as much as the signature of the one doing the shooting. And what that signature is worth we know from Budapest, from Minsk and from every night since 24 February 2022.

Ukraine put forward concrete proposals: a truce in the Black Sea and in the energy sector. Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha says he is waiting for Moscow’s answer. So am I. Moscow usually answers at night, and usually with missiles and drones.

In fact, it has answered once already: on 11 October Donald Trump announced in capital letters an “ENERGY CEASEFIRE”, effective immediately, and added: “Both sides agreed. Don’t break it!” The Kremlin confirmed nothing, and Lavrov said that Russia did not intend to buy assurances and promises again. The next day, according to Zelensky, the Russians attacked six Ukrainian energy facilities. If that truce existed at all, it lasted about a day. Those 24 hours do add up after all. We wrote at the end of October about why strikes on Ukraine’s home front are Putin’s last trump card.

Then there is the arithmetic. According to Putin, Kyiv controls about 10% of Donetsk region; according to Sybiha, 20%. The Kremlin has “liberated” half of the Ukrainian-held part of the region without firing a single shot. We wrote recently that in practice the Russian offensive is bogging down and losses are rising. All the more eagerly Moscow tries to win at the table what it cannot win on the battlefield.

Asked about the talks at a meeting with students at the University of Copenhagen, Volodymyr Zelensky said: “It is difficult with the Russians. They are, to put it mildly, not our best friends.” He described the first day as constructive and substantive and put humanitarian issues first: “The release of prisoners of war remains a priority.”

The only real deliverable that may come out of Abu Dhabi quickly is a prisoner exchange. That is good, because people in Russian captivity really do not have even 24 hours to lose. We wrote about how dictatorships turn people into bargaining chips in the article “Family of nations, or potash for hostages”.

Ukraine brought proposals, America brought encouragement, and Russia brought conditions and 162 drones. Security guarantees are being discussed with a state that has broken every one it has signed with Ukraine so far. Europe’s architecture is being discussed with a Europe sent back to its hotel. Preventing the next war is being discussed in the middle of the current one.

When the guns speak, diplomats have two honest options: to stay silent or to make the guns fall silent. In Abu Dhabi they chose a third: to talk louder so that the guns cannot be heard.

Peace is near. Just 24 hours to go, as always.

Author: Artur Żak

Official Russian and Belarusian sources cited in this text are for informational purposes only. Content from these sources may constitute disinformation or propaganda.