On March 11, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted a resolution, in which it appealed to the governments of Poland, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia with a proposal to initiate a complete ban on export and import operations for legal entities with Russia and Belarus. But how feasible is this?
IN SHORT:
- The Ukrainian Parliament believes that reduced revenue for Russia and Belarus means fewer weapons against Ukraine.
- The Ukrainian Parliament’s statement is a demonstration of its political stance.
- Europe lacks the political will to halt trade.
- Putin and Lukashenko have spent all these years building their “soft power” lobby within the EU.
- Hyping the issue of a trade ban distracts attention from the main point—victory must be military.
Why has this resolution from the Verkhovna Rada appeared now?
The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine expresses its gratitude to these countries for their support in countering Russian aggression and calls on the governments of the states to which it has appealed to initiate a complete ban on export and import operations and the transit of goods with the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus. Parliamentarians also urge these countries to secure the European Union’s support for including corresponding restrictions in future sanctions packages.
The Ukrainian parliament notes that, despite the sanctions imposed, EU countries continue to trade with the countries that have committed aggression against Ukraine. The preamble to the resolution cites a number of statistics indicating that the countries addressed by the parliament conduct trade with Russia and Belarus worth hundreds of millions of euros.
“Our common war is ongoing, and we have a common enemy. Maintaining business ties with the aggressor state allows it to fill its budget, and these funds are then directed toward weapons against us and toward financing the war. Therefore, less revenue for the Russian Federation’s treasury means fewer weapons against us,” stated one of the resolution’s initiators, Deputy Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Policy and Interparliamentary Cooperation Arseniy Pushkarenko, after the resolution was adopted.
If there were political will in the EU, trade would have stopped long ago
How realistic is such a ban, which the Ukrainian parliament is requesting, and why did this proposal from Ukrainian lawmakers emerge only in the fifth year of a full-scale war? “Black Sky” asked this of independent Belarusian economist and President of the International Institute of Freedom (Ukraine) Yaroslav Romanchuk.
“Unfortunately, the Verkhovna Rada is not a key player in Ukrainian economic policy. This resolution is more of a declaration. After consultations, including with Belarusian politicians and others, the Rada began to say that the war has been going on for five years now and we need to raise the question of why this trade is still taking place,” says Yaroslav Romanchuk.
The expert points out the European Commission’s lack of political will to halt trade with Russia and Belarus:
“If Brussels, Germany, or even Poland had the will to impose a trade blockade on Russia and Belarus, it would have been implemented long ago. But so far, there is no such proposal in Europe. That is why this appeal from the Verkhovna Rada appeared. It is better than nothing. But it is a demonstration of a political stance that is unlikely to lead to a change in European Union policy.”
Why hasn’t trade been halted for four years of war?
When asked why the EU is in no hurry to stop trading with the countries that started the largest war in Europe since World War II, Yaroslav Romanchuk replied that Russia had been building its lobby in Europe for over 20 years:
“First and foremost Putin, but along with him Lukashenko, have been building a ‘soft power’ lobby in the European Union all these years. This includes the parliamentary sphere, business, and the executive branch, as well as numerous spies and their front companies. When for so many years Putin was portrayed as a friend by Schröder, Merkel, the French presidents, the Austrians, and others, then after four years of war, everyone involved in this has not simply vanished. Perhaps they have quieted down a bit, but their influence remains. Therefore, the value-based foundations of politics have taken a back seat, and the so-called “realpolitik” and pragmatism play the leading role. It was a kind of trap into which Putin, along with his European supporters, lured all of Europe.”
Defeating the regime in Russia and Belarus is possible only by military means
At the same time, the expert believes that a complete economic embargo is impossible at this time:
“Objectively speaking, it is impossible today to impose an economic embargo on even one or two goods, let alone a complete ban on trade. Even if we recall the sanctions against Iraq, Iran, and earlier—South Africa—they didn’t work back then. And now, with Russia tied to India, Turkey, and China, these 20 packages of sanctions already imposed by the European Union have little impact on Russia’s economy.”
At the same time, Yaroslav Romanchuk believes that hyping the topic of sanctions and bans in the media does something very harmful:
“This distracts attention from a very obvious conclusion: the totalitarian criminal regimes of Russia and Belarus can be defeated exclusively by military means. Trade bans—yes, they weaken and disrupt certain supply chains, but this is merely a facade. Only a military solution to this issue can be taken seriously. Look at how many alarmists there are among Russia’s so-called liberal economists, who claim that a little more pressure will cause the Russian economy to collapse. But in reality, this is not the case.”
Andrus Hajovy
