Putin’s last trump card

Russia is attacking not only Ukraine’s infrastructure but also people’s sense of security, trying to turn their exhaustion into political pressure. The common denominator of these attacks is an attempt to deprive people of a sense of stability in their everyday lives. Home, electricity, transport, food, communications – everything that sustains the familiar order of things becomes a target. The Kremlin’s psychological calculation is that the accumulation of fear, fatigue and uncertainty will turn into public demand for ending the war at any price.

In brief

• The Kremlin is betting on fear and the exhaustion of Ukrainians. Strikes on residential buildings, hospitals and schools not only cause destruction but also serve as an instrument of psychological pressure on the civilian population.
• Attacks on the energy sector are intended to destabilise life in large cities. Russia is trying to make everyday life unbearable, force people to leave their homes and provoke a new wave of Ukrainians leaving for the EU.
• The system supporting Ukraine’s rear is under attack. Strikes on petrol stations, warehouses, retail chains, bridges, ports and border crossings are aimed at disrupting transport, supplies and exports.
• The shelling is accompanied by information operations. Fakes, AI-generated videos and calls for peace “on any terms” are used to fuel panic and undermine trust in the authorities.
• Ukraine’s response must combine protection of the rear, social unity and honest communication. The author’s conclusion: it is necessary to stay in touch with Ukrainians at home and abroad and to abandon artificial promises about dates for the end of the war.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has now lasted more than 1,700 days. The media report that the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has instructed his subordinates to force Ukraine to capitulate by spring 2027. The main lines of activity of the Russian military make it possible to understand the Kremlin dictator’s plan. Let us analyse the aggressor’s actions, especially since the Russians are now making ever more active threats against NATO and EU countries.

Since August 2026, Russian forces have been making extremely active use of jet-powered drones, which are harder to counter. They have become the aggressor army’s main strike force for attacks on peaceful Ukrainian cities. Recently, in Kharkiv Oblast, one-year-old Anhelina and her mother were killed in a “Shahed” strike. Civilians in various towns and villages across Ukraine fall victim to Russian strikes every day. Although the main blow falls on Kyiv and the regional centres, Russia’s aim is to rob as many Ukrainian citizens as possible of the illusion of calm and to whip up an atmosphere of fear in order to exploit it for its own ends. Since the aggressor’s forces are unable to show any successes at the front – and, what is more, suffered a painful blow during the Third Army Corps’ operation “Vivaldi” in Donetsk Oblast – the Russians are terrorising Ukraine’s civilian population with high-tech weapons. Moreover, the targets are not only residential buildings but also educational and healthcare facilities.

A few weeks ago, First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy Denys Shmyhal informed Ukraine’s European partners of a plan for strikes on Ukraine’s energy system obtained by Ukrainian intelligence. Combined strikes will be carried out against practically the entire range of energy facilities, with particular attention paid to cutting off power to Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv and Dnipro. Russia is trying to destabilise the functioning of Ukraine’s major cities and force the residents of large cities to look for somewhere else to live. Alternatively, it seeks to trigger a new wave of Ukrainian emigration to the EU. According to the Centre for Countering Disinformation, the Kremlin is spreading AI-generated videos calling for peace “on any terms”, fake conscription notices for women and disinformation about the consequences of Russian shelling. The CCD expects such operations to intensify in order to fuel panic and undermine trust in the authorities.

The Kremlin is trying to respond asymmetrically to the effective strikes by the Defence Forces of Ukraine on the production and export capacities of Russia’s oil and gas sector. The Russian invaders have chosen petrol stations as their targets, trying to hamper the logistics of road transport in Ukraine. Such actions fit into the concept of total war adopted by Putin’s Russia and should receive a political assessment from world politicians.

If Russian propaganda media are to be believed, every Ukrainian data centre works “in the interests of the Armed Forces”. However, Russian propagandists fail to take into account the fact that the internet in Ukraine is far less regulated than in Russia. Then again, this argument can hardly be used in propaganda.

It should be stressed that Russia began attacking Ukrainian hypermarkets in the first months of the full-scale invasion, but in recent weeks these attacks have taken on the character of systematic, sustained action. Practically all national retail chains have been hit by attacks with jet-powered drones and missiles. In this way, the Russian barbarians are trying above all to disrupt food supplies to large cities. However, these actions fail to take into account the survival experience Ukrainians have gained over 1,700 days of full-scale invasion.

The real sensation of recent weeks has been the showcase attacks by Russian jet-powered Shaheds on the North and South bridges across the Dnipro in Kyiv. The footage was widely shared in the information space because, on the South Bridge, for example, a metro train carrying passengers very nearly fell victim to a Russian drone. The Chief of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, declared the intention of cutting off the right bank of the Dnipro from the left. The truth, however, is different: these actions are aimed at exerting psychological pressure. The point is that Kyiv’s bridges (and not only those in the capital) were built mostly during the Cold War and can withstand even missile strikes. These strikes are therefore aimed primarily at stoking panic among the civilian population.

Because of constant attacks on cargo ships, the Greater Odesa ports are effectively closed. Sadly, there have been more than a few deaths of seafarers who were prepared to risk their lives to take out ships carrying grain and other valuable cargo. We must understand that the reduction of Ukrainian grain exports is a direct threat to the food security of the Global South.

The Russian army’s jet-powered drones repeatedly attack checkpoints on Ukraine’s western border, forcing border guards and customs officers to suspend their work. This not only spreads panic but also disrupts the established procedure for deliveries of military and civilian goods to Ukraine.

Russia is making systematic efforts to destroy Ukraine’s rear. This testifies not only to a lack of confidence in its own victory but also to an attempt to exploit the window of opportunity afforded to Vladimir Putin by the short-sighted policy of the Trump administration. In the existential war unleashed by the Kremlin, we urgently need to pursue an effective information policy towards Ukrainian citizens at home and abroad, strengthen the foundations of national unity and abandon the practice of artificially setting dates for the end of the war against the Russian Federation.

Author: Svitlana Mialyk