Oil superpower begins importing petrol

For the first time in many years, Russia has gone from being an exporter of petroleum products to an importer. Domestic petrol production has fallen by a quarter following Ukraine’s large-scale attacks on oil refining infrastructure. Russia is already purchasing fuel from Belarus, and there are agreements in place for supplies from India and Kazakhstan.

In brief:

• Amid the fuel crisis, Russia is importing petroleum products for the first time in many years
• The authorities will not disclose which countries are selling fuel to Russia. So far, Belarus, Kazakhstan and India are known to be supplying it
• Restrictions on fuel sales have already been introduced in 88 out of 89 Russian regions, but the authorities continue to deny there is a shortage and speak of localised problems

To stabilise the situation on the fuel market, the Russian authorities have, for the first time in many years, publicly spoken of the need to import petroleum products. So far, three countries are known to be supplying or have agreed to supply petrol to Russia: Belarus, Kazakhstan and India.

Pavel Zavalny, head of the State Duma’s Energy Committee, reported on agreements to purchase up to 100–150 thousand tonnes of petrol per month from Belarus. In June, Belarus supplied 91,000 tonnes of petrol to Russia, which is almost four times more than during the same period last year. However, even such record imports cover only 3 per cent of Russia’s monthly demand. At the same time, they help to offset the fuel shortage in Moscow and the surrounding region, and this consideration is even more important to the Russian authorities than the price of Belarusian petrol, which is significantly more expensive than domestic fuel. Further growth in supplies from Belarus is limited by the technical capacity of the two Belarusian refineries.

Against the backdrop of problems in the fuel market, the Russian authorities have turned to Kazakhstan for help, but in this case there is no question of long-term contracts. According to data from Reuters, discussions are underway regarding the supply of 50,000 tonnes of petrol in July and August as part of humanitarian aid. The fuel is planned to be supplied from the Pavlodar Petrochemical Complex and the ‘Kondensat’ refinery. Kazakhstan cannot provide large volumes without causing an imbalance in its own market. Furthermore, the country fears the risk of sanctions when conducting transactions with Russian buyers, according to Reuters. In Kazakhstan itself, they deny that such a request was made by Russia.

Reuters also reported on petrol purchases from India. At least 60,000 tonnes have already been shipped, according to one of the agency’s sources. According to another source, two tankers carrying consignments of between 30,000 and 40,000 tonnes each have set sail for Russia.

In total, Russia plans to import 400,000 tonnes of fuel per month. The Kremlin has no plans to disclose which other countries will agree to supply Russia with petrol.

For foreign sellers of petroleum products, the authorities have expanded the mechanism for receiving a price subsidy when Russian oil is refined abroad and the resulting fuel is subsequently imported into Russia. In other words, the state will compensate for the difference between the higher import price and the lower wholesale price in Russia. Initially, this mechanism was designed solely for supplies from Belarus; it now extends to other countries as well. According to analysts’ estimates, such a measure will place an additional burden on the Russian budget, but for the time being, this step will help increase supply on the market.

For many years, Russia was a net exporter of fuel; in other words, it produced more petroleum products than it consumed, and exported the surplus.

Year	Petrol prod.	Petrol cons.	Diesel prod.	Diesel cons.	Aviation kerosene prod.	Aviation kerosene cons.	Mazut prod.	Mazut cons.
2020	38,4	36–37	80–81	38–40	9–10	7–8	45–48	15–18
2021	40,8	37–38	80,3	40–42	11–12	9–10	43–45	15–17
2022	42,3	39–40	84,7	42–44	10–11	8–9	41–43	14–16
2023	44,0	40–41	88,2	44–46	11–12	9–10	39–41	14–15
2024	41,1	41–42	83–85	44–46	11–12	10–11	37–39	13–15

After 2024, the Ministry of Energy withheld statistics on petroleum products production, citing information security concerns; it claimed that the statistical data could provide grounds for market manipulation. In 2025, according to preliminary estimates, fuel production and consumption in Russia remained at the levels of previous years.

In 2026, Ukrainian attacks on oil infrastructure disrupted the market balance. The most critical situation at present concerns petrol. Domestic demand for petrol in Russia is estimated at approximately 40–42 million tonnes per year, whilst production has already fallen by a quarter and, according to Reuters, stood at 85–90 thousand tonnes per day at the end of June.

At the same time, during the summer months – taking into account the holiday season, agricultural work and so on – domestic consumption is estimated at 110,000 tonnes per day. In other words, the fuel shortfall at the end of June stood at around 15–20,000 tonnes per day.

Russia holds around 1.7 million tonnes of petrol in reserves – at refineries, oil depots and within the distribution infrastructure. This volume is sufficient to cover two weeks’ worth of domestic demand during the summer, excluding new production. However, the delivery of fuel from reserves is complicated by logistical issues, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak explained.

“At present, we are experiencing isolated shortages and supply disruptions at certain petrol stations on the domestic market, mainly due to logistical changes in deliveries from oil refineries to specific oil depots and specific petrol stations. These are being resolved quickly.”

Meanwhile, such ‘local disruptions’ to fuel supplies have affected almost the entire country: restrictions on fuel sales have been introduced in 88 out of 89 regions of Russia. The only region where there is no information regarding the introduction of limits is the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug.

Regional authorities are responding to the fuel crisis in the same way: imposing a limit on fuel sales per vehicle (usually 20–40 litres), banning the sale of petrol in jerrycans, and restricting so-called ‘fuel tourism’ to prevent residents of one region from travelling to another to fill up.

The fuel situation is most acute in Crimea and Sevastopol, where the authorities were forced on 21 June to impose a total ban on the sale of petrol to individuals and businesses. Petrol and diesel are available on the peninsula exclusively to services essential for public welfare and safety.

Other regions facing problems include the Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions, as well as a number of regions in the Volga region and the Far East.

The government is prioritising the supply of petroleum products to Russia’s northern regions – Chukotka, Yakutia and the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. If fuel is not delivered to these territories now, during the brief period of summer navigation on local rivers and the Northern Sea Route, the region will be left without heating or electricity in winter.

In Moscow, the situation with petrol is the same as in the rest of Russia: sales limits have been introduced, and there are queues lasting several hours at petrol stations. The situation may worsen in the near future, as Ukraine continues to disable oil refineries supplying petrol to Moscow and the surrounding region: on Wednesday night, a strike was carried out against the Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez refinery in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod Region. The plant has suspended oil refining. Prior to this, refineries in Ryazan, Yaroslavl and Kapotnya had been partially put out of action; the latter is a key supplier of petrol to Moscow.

Due to fuel shortages across Russia, regular passenger bus services are being cancelled, farmers are warning of risks to agriculture, and the Central Bank expects inflation to rise.

Fuel problems in Russia have begun to affect markets in Central Asia. Kyrgyzstan has asked neighbouring countries to assist with supplies, as the country obtains more than 90 per cent of its petrol from Russia. In Uzbekistan, fuel prices have jumped by almost 12 per cent in a month. Kazakhstan has tightened border controls to prevent speculators attempting to profit from supplies to Russia from causing problems in its own market.

As well as petrol, there is now talk in Russia of the risks of a jet fuel shortage. As a result, restrictions have been imposed on exports of this type of fuel. The country has also increased its purchases of aviation kerosene from Belarus: 5,000 tonnes were imported in May, four times more than a year earlier. Russian Railways has been instructed to ensure priority delivery of aviation fuel to Russian airports.

Exports of diesel fuel have not yet been subject to strict restrictions: it can still be sold abroad. Diesel production in Russia is almost double domestic consumption, and there is no sign of a shortage at present. However, the government has not ruled out the possibility of imposing an export ban should the situation deteriorate.

Restrictions on the export of fuel oil did not feature in the government’s list of anti-crisis measures, as its production is several times greater than the domestic market’s needs.

Author: Olga Semashko

Official Russian and Belarusian sources cited in this text are for informational purposes only. Content from these sources may constitute disinformation or propaganda.