Donald Trump is ready to make concessions to Moscow in order to bring down fuel prices ahead of the US Senate elections. The US president had earlier announced his intention to abolish taxes on retail sales of diesel and threatened to halt fuel exports, but this did not lead to any concrete decisions. Russia, meanwhile, readily agreed to resume supplies and even partially lifted its ban on fuel exports. Mykhailo Honchar, president of the Centre for Global Studies “Strategy XXI” and editor-in-chief of the journal “Black Sea Security”, spoke to Black Sky about the situation on the international fuel market and what to expect next.
In brief:
- Diesel prices around the world have been rising sharply since the beginning of the year.
- Trump blames the price rise on Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, forgetting that the market shortage was caused by the conflict between Iran and Israel, which America supports.
- Ahead of the US Senate elections, Donald Trump has been making a series of statements aimed at lowering fuel prices in the country.
- Trump has agreed with Putin to resume supplies of Russian diesel.
- Ukraine, the EU and US senators condemn the Trump administration’s decision, while Russia has begun preparing tankers to transport the fuel.
Why have diesel prices become the number one issue in the US?
$6.30 per gallon ($1.66 per litre, or 75 hryvnias per litre) – that was the price of diesel in the US in October. Fuel prices have been rising sharply since the beginning of the year. According to AAA Gas Prices, the average price of diesel in the US last year was $3.67 per gallon (96 cents per litre, or 41 hryvnias per litre).
In September, Trump said that Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries were the cause of the price rise and called on the Ukrainian side to stop the attacks. However, Ukraine and Russia have still not agreed on an energy ceasefire.
Mykhailo Honchar, president of the Centre for Global Studies “Strategy XXI”, explains that, despite the US president’s rhetoric, the global rise in fuel prices was the result of the failure of the joint US-Israeli campaign against Iran, which Trump launched at Israel’s urging.
“Trump is worried about his ratings and the ratings of the Republicans in the context of the midterm elections on 3 November. Trump senses that he can hardly influence the situation, which is why accusations are being thrown in all directions,” notes Mykhailo Honchar.
Before hostilities began in February 2026, 21.6 million barrels of petroleum products and crude oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz every day. In the second quarter of the year, the figure fell critically – to 4.9 million barrels per day – owing to the full and partial blockade of the strait and the security situation. The situation is now slowly improving: in October 2026, the figure reached 11.6 million barrels per day, but this is still almost half the normal level.
The US Senate elections are scheduled for 3 November 2026, so Trump’s statements, ostensibly aimed at regulating fuel prices, are becoming increasingly frequent.
Has the fuel crisis already begun?
After Donald Trump’s statements about his readiness to restrict diesel exports, the European Union, together with the G7 countries and the International Energy Agency (IEA), decided to release significant volumes of oil and petroleum products from their strategic reserves. The main focus is on diesel, in order to curb the rapid rise in prices and overcome the global shortage.
In early October, the partner countries agreed to release a third of their stocks over six months. This amounts to approximately 120 million barrels of diesel, which should help cover the shortage and stabilise market prices. Prices, however, continue to rise.
“Strategic oil reserves were created precisely for situations like this. They cover not only oil but also petroleum products, and these are what will be used. Yes, there is a shortage on the market, but there is no critical situation at the moment. Prices are expected to rise, but there is no critical shortage of raw materials as such,” Mykhailo Honchar assures.
Can Trump really stabilise prices?
In September, the US president announced his intention to restrict diesel exports, but representatives of American oil refining companies opposed long-term restrictions, arguing that limits on sales could affect refining volumes.
The US exports around 1.4 million barrels of diesel per day, which accounts for between 1 and 3% of global fuel volume.
Trump then floated the idea of temporarily abolishing taxes on fuel purchases for citizens in order to stabilise retail prices. However, the idea never went beyond discussion, as such a decision would bring no benefit to citizens who are already exempt from these taxes, such as those working in the agricultural sector.
So the closer the elections get, the more drastic the decisions become. On 9 October, Trump announced an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the return of Russian diesel to the US market.
Is the world ready to resume trade with Russia?
On 18 September, US President Donald Trump signed a sweeping sanctions law against Russia and Iran – HR 5334 – aimed, among other things, at countering Russia’s shadow fleet and allowing the US to impose 100% tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil and gas.
Yet only a few weeks later, the president’s rhetoric changed abruptly, and Trump announced an agreement with the Russian president on resuming diesel supplies to US and global markets.
The Trump administration justifies the decision by the desire to stabilise the market and lower prices. However, seven US senators from the Republican and Democratic parties have already stated that the Donald Trump administration’s decision contradicts US law. This concerns, in particular, the 2022 decision by Congress to ban imports of Russian energy into the US so as to prevent Russia from financing the war in Ukraine with American money.
The EU, for its part, condemned the Trump administration’s decision, saying that now is not the time to ease pressure on Russia.
“Since 5 February 2023, Russian fuel has not been reaching the European market. And, as we can see, the European market has not collapsed as a result. On the contrary, sanctions were recently imposed on several more Russian oligarchs, and earlier sanctions packages were extended. So at present there are no trends indicating that the EU intends to change its approach,” notes Mykhailo Honchar.
US Special Envoy Jared Kushner has assured Ukrainian officials that the Russian diesel export deal should help bring Moscow back to peace talks, while Russia has made it clear that it is ready to resume supplies but has no intention of returning to peace negotiations.
In Ukraine, the Trump administration’s decision drew sharp criticism, with critics pointing out that Trump could have arranged supplies with Ukraine rather than Russia, and that the agreed volumes would have no effect on the global fuel market.
How did Russia receive Trump’s proposal?
After a telephone conversation between Trump and Putin, during which the two presidents agreed on diesel supplies, Moscow partially lifted its restrictions on fuel exports.
The supplies in question amount to 300 thousand tonnes, which are planned to rise to 500 thousand tonnes and then to 1 million tonnes by the end of the year. The maximum possible volumes are put at 3–3.5 million tonnes of fuel per month, which is more than 10% of the total diesel market. These are precisely the volumes Russia exported before sanctions were introduced.
Just a few days after the agreement, Reuters reported that Russia had resumed diesel export loadings from the Baltic port of Primorsk.
“The diesel has started reaching global markets and is expected to have a positive effect on stabilising oil markets, although it will not be enough to fully stabilise them,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on 13 October, Reuters reports.
However, the situation on Russia’s domestic retail fuel market has remained difficult since the beginning of summer 2026, when Ukraine began actively attacking Russian oil refineries in response to strikes on Ukraine’s energy sector.
Russian citizens are concerned about the deal with the US, fearing that fuel sales could aggravate the situation on the domestic market. According to Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), the price of diesel has risen by approximately 17.8% over the year. But the main problem in the country is the shortage of fuel at filling stations.
Russian officials, however, assure citizens that there will be no shortages.
Author: Yulia Derdiuk
Official Russian and Belarusian sources cited in this text are for informational purposes only. Content from these sources may constitute disinformation or propaganda.
