Russia’s Fuel Hostages

Amid the fuel crisis in Russia, the government has imposed a ban on diesel exports. Similar restrictions had previously been imposed on gasoline and jet fuel. Authorities claim that the ban will not affect bilateral government agreements on the supply of petroleum products—in other words, Russia will not leave its partner countries without fuel. However, guarantees on paper do not necessarily translate into actual shipments, which depend on the availability of fuel from Russian producers.

BlackSky examined which countries have become critically dependent on Russian petroleum products and how the fuel crisis in Russia has affected them.

In brief:

• Mongolia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are critically dependent on petroleum product imports: these countries purchase virtually all of their fuel for the domestic market from Russia
• In Uzbekistan, gasoline prices have soared to historic highs, and the local airline has been forced to cut back on flights due to a shortage of jet fuel
• Kazakhstan is cracking down on “fuel tourists” from Russia: border crossing restrictions and vehicle requirements have been introduced

Mongolia is one of the largest buyers of Russian petroleum products in Asia. Every year, the country imports about 2.5 million metric tons of petroleum products from Russia, which accounts for approximately 95% of the domestic market’s needs. Therefore, any restrictions on exports from Russia almost immediately become a matter of national economic security for Mongolia.

The first warning sign for the country came as early as the fall of 2025, when its main suppliers—Russian refineries—shut down for “unscheduled maintenance.” Mongolia faced a gasoline shortage, long lines at gas stations, and the risk of a shutdown in the transportation and mining sectors. The country’s authorities began discussing a possible socioeconomic crisis and prepared for a sharp reduction in non-essential budget expenditures.

Mongolian government officials flew to Moscow several times in 2026 to negotiate agreements on regular supplies of jet fuel, gasoline, and diesel. They were assured that Russia would fulfill its obligations and that there would be no disruptions in delivery.

At present, Mongolia’s Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources asserts that there is no fuel shortage and promises not to raise prices for gasoline and diesel fuel during Naadam (the country’s main national holiday, held July 11–13). Officials also reported that they have reached an agreement on fuel supplies from China and South Korea. By 2028, the government has promised to build storage tanks to create a three-month reserve of petroleum products.

The country consumes about two million metric tons of petroleum products per year, and nearly 95% of them come from Russia.

For 2026, the countries have agreed to supply 1.2 million metric tons of petroleum products to Kyrgyzstan. From January through May, over 251,000 metric tons of gasoline, 235,100 metric tons of diesel fuel, and 48,150 metric tons of jet fuel were delivered.

At present, according to the words of Kanatbek Eshatov, head of the Kyrgyzstan Oil Traders Association, there are no problems with AI-92 gasoline—the most in-demand grade in the country—and its reserves will last for at least one and a half months. However, there are disruptions in the supply of AI-95 and AI-98 gasoline. The country’s authorities have already appealed for assistance to Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Belarus.

Amid the tense situation on the fuel market, Kyrgyz authorities introduced state regulation of fuel prices in June, but abandoned this measure just one month later.

In 2025, Tajikistan imported 1.2 million metric tons of petroleum products from Russia, accounting for 84% of the domestic market’s needs. In the first half of 2026, the country imported 922,000 metric tons of Russian petroleum products.

Minister of Energy and Water Resources Daler Juma stated that, based on an intergovernmental agreement, exports of certain petroleum products from Russia to Tajikistan are continuing, but “certain difficulties remain.” He also assured that Tajikistan has a 60-day supply of petroleum products. Amid the unstable supply situation, retail fuel prices have risen by about 10% since the beginning of the year.

Tajik airlines are seeking alternative fuel suppliers after Russia banned the export of jet fuel from the country. In early June, the Asia-Plus news agency, citing the Ministry of Energy, reported that the country has about 60,000 metric tons of jet fuel, which should last until the end of November.

To ensure the economy has the necessary supply of petroleum products, the Tajik authorities are negotiating with other suppliers—Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Iraq, and Belarus.

Although the country produces its own petroleum products, it is not yet able to fully meet growing domestic demand. Imports account for about one-third of the country’s fuel supply, with about 80% of imported petroleum products coming from Russia. Uzbekistan purchases gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

The fuel shortage in Russia has already led to a significant increase in fuel prices in Uzbekistan. The price of AI-92 gasoline on the commodity exchange has reached a historic high. In the past month and a half alone, fuel prices have risen by nearly 12%,

Amid a shortage of jet fuel and rising prices, Uzbekistan Airways announced a reduction in flight frequency on certain routes between cities in Uzbekistan and Russia.

Kazakhstan’s main priority at the moment is to prevent the illegal export of fuel from the country in order to avoid an imbalance in the domestic market. The country is capable of meeting its own gasoline needs: production volumes are virtually equal to consumption volumes. Imports from Russia are insignificant—they serve more as a safety net in case of a shutdown at local refineries, whether planned or emergency.

Due to the fuel crisis in Russia, residents of Russian regions bordering Kazakhstan—the Astrakhan, Volgograd, Saratov, Orenburg, Novosibirsk, and Omsk regions—have begun traveling en masse to the neighboring country to buy gasoline. The price difference offers savings: in Kazakhstan, a liter of gasoline costs about 45–55 Russian rubles, while the average price in Russia is 74 rubles.

Kazakhstani authorities have begun cracking down on “fuel tourists.” Initially, they limited the entry of vehicles from neighboring countries to once per day; then they began inspecting vehicles to identify those with additional fuel tanks used for “gray-market” exports.

Fifty-nine police checkpoints have been set up along the Kazakhstan-Russia border to inspect vehicles. At the same time, officials in Astana emphasize that Russian citizens may refuel at Kazakh gas stations without restriction, provided they are filling the vehicles’ standard fuel tanks. Refueling into additional containers, including jerry cans, is strictly prohibited.

Author: Volha Siamashko

Official Russian and Belarusian sources cited in this text are for informational purposes only. Content from these sources may constitute disinformation or propaganda.