A “blue wave” against Trump: how the elections are changing America and what it means for Ukraine

The Democrats are winning control of both chambers of the US Congress, prevailing even in states that had remained Republican for decades. Donald Trump says he is ready to cooperate with his opponents, and Washington is preparing for a new period of divided government. For Ukraine, the results open up opportunities to strengthen support in Congress, even as some of its long-standing allies are leaving it.

In brief

• The Democrats are regaining control of both chambers of Congress. The 3 November midterm elections have changed the balance of power in Washington. The White House remains with Donald Trump, while the Democrats win majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate. The new Congress will start work on 3 January 2027.
• The high cost of living and the war with Iran were key issues in the vote. According to Reuters, voters were worried about prices and the administration’s actions. The Democrats focused their campaign on everyday costs and corruption, while the Republicans devoted much attention to culture wars.
• Trump talks of cooperation, while Congress prepares to tighten oversight of the administration. The president has said he is ready to accept the results and make deals with the Democrats. The new majority will be able to pursue investigations more actively and influence the Senate confirmation of presidential nominees. Trump retains his veto, so on the budget and legislation much will depend on negotiations.
• New opportunities are opening up for Ukraine in Congress, but some of its allies have lost. They include Republicans who voted to support Ukraine or worked on aid packages. Further funding and arms deliveries will depend on specific decisions by Congress and negotiations with the White House.
• The Kremlin expects Trump to continue his foreign-policy course. Before the vote, Kremlin spokesman Peskov called the elections an internal matter for the US; after the vote, commenting on the results, he stressed that Trump would continue to pursue his own foreign policy.

The 3 November midterm elections dealt a stunning political blow to Donald Trump and the Republican Party. It is already clear that the Democrats are regaining majorities in both chambers of Congress. NPR calls this the beginning of a new period of divided government: the White House remains Republican, while the legislature passes to the president’s opponents. The final distribution of seats will depend on the completion of the count.

“Seismic political change in the US. The Democrats are not just winning control of both chambers of Congress – they are winning it by a huge margin,” is how Ostap Yarysh, journalist and media adviser at Razom for Ukraine and a former Voice of America journalist, describes the first results. In his immediate reaction, he suggests that the Democrats may win 54–55 seats in the Senate and more than 250 in the House of Representatives. Indeed, the Donkey (the symbol of the Democratic Party) has trampled the Elephant (the symbol of the Republicans).

Of particular significance are the Democrats’ victories in long-standing Republican strongholds. According to ABC News, in Texas James Talarico is defeating the state’s attorney general, Ken Paxton. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton is ahead of incumbent senator Roger Marshall. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown, who lost his previous election two years ago, is returning to the Senate.

The scale of the change is well illustrated by the historical gap between victories. As the specialist outlet Roll Call notes, Texas last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1988, Kansas in 1932 and South Carolina in 1998. In South Carolina, Annie Andrews defeated Darline Graham, who had been appointed senator after the death of her brother, Lindsey Graham. The outlet attributes the Democrats’ success to a combination of strong candidates and a political climate favourable to the opposition.

“In reality, Republican candidates nominated and backed by Trump lost even in traditionally Republican states,” Yarysh stresses.

American media see the results above all as a verdict on the current administration. The Washington Post put it in a headline: “Voters punished Trump with a sharp swing to the Democrats”.

Reuters names dissatisfaction with the cost of living, the war with Iran and complaints about how the country is run among the main reasons. The Democrats built their campaign around the affordability of everyday expenses and corruption, while the Republicans devoted considerable attention to culture wars. In the agency’s assessment, economic worries proved more important to voters.

Local campaigns also matter for understanding the results. Pennsylvania public broadcaster WHYY describes the expected “blue wave” as having turned into a “tidal” one. The Democrats won the four most competitive House races in the state. Among the losers was Brian Fitzpatrick, who had a reputation as a moderate Republican and often broke with Trump. This time, his image as an independent was not enough to win – despite his support for building relations with Ukraine.

The results of the vote therefore give grounds to speak of broader dissatisfaction with those in power. It affected both President Trump’s closest supporters and politicians who tried to keep their distance from him.

Trump’s first statements combine a readiness to make deals with an attempt to distance himself from responsibility for the defeat.

“We will work with the Democrats and, you know, we look forward to working with them. We will probably make a deal on something,” the president said in an interview with The New York Times, Reuters reports.

At the same time, Trump wrote on Truth Social that if his name had been on the ballot, the Republicans would have won by a wide margin. Reuters points out the contradiction: during the campaign the president himself urged his supporters to vote as if he were on the ballot too. It is worth recalling that all members of Congress are elected under a majoritarian system.

A readiness to accept the election results does not yet mean agreeing with the winners’ programme. The new balance of power creates the conditions both for negotiations and for protracted conflicts between Congress and the White House.

NPR expects more congressional investigations and tighter oversight of the administration. The Democratic majority in the Senate will also make it harder to confirm presidential nominees for posts that require the chamber’s approval.

For Kyiv, the results have several dimensions. The party balance will determine committee leadership, the congressional agenda and the scope for oversight of the administration’s foreign policy. At the same time, individual legislators, their experience and their willingness to work on Ukrainian issues remain important.

“For Ukrainians, this news has another dimension. Among those who lost are steadfast allies of Ukraine in Congress,” notes Ostap Yarysh.

In his comment, he names, among others, Brian Fitzpatrick, Mike Lawler, Rob Bresnahan, Mike Carey and Susan Collins.

A separate piece of news notable for Ukrainian audiences is the defeat of Victoria Spartz. According to The Wall Street Journal, the Ukrainian-born congresswoman lost to Democrat J.D. Ford in Indiana’s 5th district. The paper recalls that Spartz had expressed scepticism about further American aid to Ukraine. Her Ukrainian origin did not in itself determine how she voted.

The practical conclusion for Ukraine is the need to quickly build contacts with new legislators and to develop cooperation with both parties. The Democratic victory may change Congress’s ability to influence the administration, but it does not by itself guarantee specific decisions on funding or arms deliveries. That will depend on the content of bills, negotiations with the White House and support within both chambers.

On 2 November, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the elections “an internal matter for the United States”, adding that Moscow would follow them closely. Asked about possible consequences for Ukraine, he stressed that Trump would remain president until the end of his term and would continue to conduct foreign policy. This was reported by Interfax.

As early as 30 October, according to the same agency, Peskov suggested that the midterm elections would not change the US attitude towards Russia.

Once the results began to come in, Russian media reported the Democrats’ success, but some publications focused on the tools that remain in the president’s hands. In particular, TASS published a piece headlined “Trump will paralyse the Democrats’ legislative work if they win”. This is the assessment of a Republican source quoted by the agency – not an established consequence of the elections, nor an official Kremlin statement.

In another publication, TASS emphasised Trump’s words about his veto power and the possibility of future deals with the Democrats.

These particular pieces show an emphasis on the preservation of presidential powers and the prospect of confrontation in Washington. However, it would be premature to draw conclusions from them about the official reaction of the Russian authorities to the final results.

The new Congress is due to start work on 3 January 2027. Until then, the results will continue to be finalised and preparations made for the change of congressional leadership.

“Tonight a big blue wave swept across America,” Ostap Yarysh sums up.

Its political scale is already visible. Its further significance will be determined by decisions: whether the Democrats can turn their electoral success into effective congressional oversight, on which issues Trump will agree to compromise, and whether a stable majority to support Ukraine can be found in the renewed Washington.

Author: Svitlana Mialyk

Official Russian and Belarusian sources cited in this text are for informational purposes only. Content from these sources may constitute disinformation or propaganda.