In late June, Belarusians experienced what was perhaps the most dramatic moment since the start of the war in Ukraine. In 2022, it came as a shock to many that Lukashenko had allowed his country’s territory to be used to launch an attack on Ukraine. Now, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has issued an ultimatum to the Belarusian authorities: either they shut down the Russian relay stations for drones on their territory, or the Ukrainians will do it themselves.
Exactly how the Ukrainians plan to do this was not specified, but the imaginations of Belarusians conjured up images of burning oil refineries, the Ukrainian army seizing Belarusian territory, and civilian casualties. Lukashenko and his opponents were urged to prevent a potential catastrophe. Lukashenko’s main opponents stated that Ukraine has the right to respond to the co-aggressor; Lukashenko prepared to leave on a lengthy business trip; and Russia expressed its readiness to defend Belarus as it would defend itself.
For an entire week, the parties to the ultimatum and those involved exchanged statements, threats, diplomatic notes, and both secret and not-so-secret meetings. By the end of the week, not only propagandists but also the Belarusian Foreign Ministry had lost track of who was friend and who was foe in this Slavic triangle.
In brief:
- Zelenskyy stated that if Lukashenko does not voluntarily shut down Russian relay stations in Belarus, Ukraine will do so
- Experts and politicians seriously discussed the possibility of Lukashenko being fully drawn into the war in the event of an escalation on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border
- According to Lukashenko, a Ukrainian delegation arrived in Minsk for talks. Belarus shut down the relay stations just in case
- Later, Lukashenko himself flew to meet with Putin. They held talks at Valdai for nearly three days; the results of these negotiations are still unknown
- After meeting with Putin, Lukashenko flew to China
Friday, June 19. The ultimatum began.
On this day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that relay stations are located on Belarusian territory that help coordinate Russian strikes against Ukraine. According to him, four such relay stations are located in the Gomel and Brest regions. According to Zelenskyy, “it is precisely thanks to this equipment that strikes were carried out against the Zhytomyr, Rivne, and Volyn regions, against the energy sector, against the railway—and against ordinary towns and villages.” Ukraine gave the Belarusian authorities one week to remove this equipment; otherwise, it would be destroyed by Ukrainian forces.
The weekend of June 20 and 21. All responsibility lies with Lukashenko, but no one knows what to do
Over the next few days, Zelenskyy repeated the threat regarding the relay stations several times. Official Minsk remained silent; only Belarusian propaganda played the hero, declaring that no ultimatums would intimidate them.
Admittedly, they preferred not to mention the presence or absence of Russian relay stations on Belarusian territory.
Serious tensions flared up in Belarusian society: politicians, lawyers, and journalists tried to answer the questions of whether Ukraine has the right to strike Belarusian territory and what to do in the event of such an attack. Calls were made to all interested parties to prevent Belarus’s full-scale involvement in the war.
Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the leader of the Belarusian democratic forces, placed all responsibility for the current situation on Lukashenko and called on Belarusians “not to let themselves be dragged into someone else’s war.” Tikhanovskaya did not specify exactly what steps needed to be taken to achieve this.
Monday, June 22. Brussels supported Ukraine’s right to self-defense
Official Minsk was occupied with observing the Day of Mourning—the anniversary of Nazi Germany’s attack on the USSR in 1941. The main events took place in Brest. Lukashenko did not appear there; he continued to remain silent regarding Zelenskyy’s ultimatum.
The European Commission supported Ukraine’s right to self-defense. Brussels emphasized that Belarus continues to assist Russia in the war against Ukraine and remains an accomplice to the Kremlin’s aggression. Translated from diplomatic language, this means: an attack by Ukraine on Russian military facilities on Belarusian territory would not raise any eyebrows with the European Union.
Tuesday, June 23. Did Lukashenko let the Belarusians down?
When the political debate on social media and on the air reached its peak, Lukashenko finally appeared in public. At a meeting with Belarusian Prime Minister Alexander Turchin, he announced an upcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and a lengthy business trip. In other words, he made it clear that he would not be in the country on the day the ultimatum expires. He also told residents of the Gomel region—where two Russian relay stations are located—not to worry and to trust that the country has sufficient resources to protect the people of Gomel from an attack by any aggressor. Following these statements, not only the residents of the Gomel region but the entire country became unsettled.
Wednesday, June 24. The relay stations were shut down
Over the course of a day, Belarusians had somehow come to terms with the idea that Lukashenko had abandoned them at the most critical moment. His fate remained unknown to the public, as did his destination. However, good news arrived from Ukraine that evening. Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Kyiv had confirmed the shutdown of the Belarusian repeaters; the equipment had shown no signs of activity since June 22.
“Whether they’ve been dismantled or not, to be honest, I don’t know yet. But we’re working on it. I’m monitoring the situation very closely and receiving daily reports. The fact is that the repeaters aren’t working as of today.” .
It seemed as though we could breathe a sigh of relief, since the reason for the ultimatum had disappeared and no attacks on Belarusian territory were expected.
However, Russia began talking about a Ukrainian attack on Belarus, promising to defend the country’s territory as if it were its own, as stipulated by the Union State Treaty.
Thursday, June 25. A mysterious meeting with representatives of Zelensky
Alexander Lukashenko suddenly appeared in Minsk; as it turned out, he had never left Belarus. At the Palace of Independence, he received guests who had gathered for the Forum of Regions of Belarus and Russia: Valentina Matvienko, Chairwoman of the Federation Council, and Russian governors. During one of the meetings, Lukashenko rebuked Boris Gryzlov, Russia’s ambassador to Belarus, accusing him of allegedly trying to drag Belarus into a war. In addition, he said that representatives of Volodymyr Zelenskyy had recently been seated in the very same spot where the Russian delegation is now sitting, and that he had assured them that Belarusians would not go to war with Ukrainians. Ukraine has not yet commented on this meeting.
On this day, Belarus essentially demonstrated to the Ukrainians all the peacefulness it is capable of. A decision was made to simplify the crossing process at several border checkpoints so that Ukrainians could come to Belarus to pick mushrooms and berries there. The Belarusian Foreign Ministry even handed a note regarding wild plants to a representative of the Ukrainian embassy. To further emphasize the importance of this initiative, Lukashenko personally invited Ukrainians to Belarus “to pick mushrooms and berries.” This was announced in the presence of Russian Ambassador Gryzlov, who—judging by the video of the meeting—did not seem particularly fond of the idea. Most likely, Russia has its own plans for the Polessye marshes, and Ukrainian berry- and mushroom-pickers do not fit into those plans. The Ukrainian Border Guard Service also did not appreciate Lukashenko’s idea, warning citizens that the northern border is actually not a very safe place and that no “wild plants” are worth a visit to Belarus.
By evening, it had become abundantly clear that not only citizens and propagandists, but even the Foreign Ministry had completely lost track of Minsk’s “geopolitical balancing act.” Earlier, at a meeting of the OSCE Permanent Council, Belarus’s Permanent Representative to the organization, Andrei Dapkunas, had spoken. Commenting on “Zelenskyy’s ultimatum,” he did not mince words, calling Zelenskyy “Mr. Bean on crack” and urging Ukraine’s allies to “keep their Kyiv puppets under control.” By evening, the text of the diplomat’s speech had been removed from the websites of the state news agency BELTA and the website of Lukashenko’s administration newspaper “SB. Belarus Today” without any explanation.
Ukraine itself, represented by President Zelenskyy, stated that Belarus, under Russian influence, is preparing infrastructure that could be used to expand the war against Ukraine. This mainly includes roads, ammunition depots, and fuel depots. According to Zelenskyy, Kyiv has already sent Minsk the “necessary signals” and called on the Belarusian authorities to refrain from actions that “contribute to prolonging and expanding the war.”
Friday, June 26. Lukashenko finally flew off to meet with Putin
The morning began with reports from Ukrainian monitoring channels that Russian drones had flown in from Belarusian territory during a nighttime attack. However, this information did not spread beyond Telegram channels, meaning it had no impact on the renewal of the ultimatum.
Russia ultimately put pressure on Belarus by submitting a request to convene an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council in connection with the attack on a bus carrying Belarusian children in the Bryansk region. The Belarusian Foreign Ministry may have been ready to let the issue “fizzle out,” but after remarks by the acting permanent representative of the Russian Federation to the UN, Anna Evstigneeva, stating that Russia supported the request, there was no turning back. The Security Council meeting was scheduled for June 29.
On Friday, Lukashenko nevertheless flew to meet with Putin at the Russian president’s residence in Valdai. Around 11 p.m., Lukashenko’s press service reported that the meeting, which had begun at 6 p.m., was still ongoing.
On that day, Ukraine attempted to reassure the Belarusian public. Yaroslav Chornogor, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Ambassador-at-Large responsible for liaising with Belarusian democratic forces, said in an interview with DW that
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s call on Alexander Lukashenko to remove relay stations for Russian drones was not an ultimatum.
“Legally speaking, we did not issue any ultimatum to Belarus. It was simply a demand, voiced publicly by the president, that was phrased in rather categorical terms, which is why the media everywhere are calling it an ‘ultimatum.’”
Expanding on the possibility of escalation, the diplomat stated that if anyone thinks Ukraine would send its troops into Belarusian territory in such a scenario, they are greatly mistaken:
“We don’t need foreign territory; we need to eliminate the threat. Therefore, our soldiers will remain on the Ukrainian side of the border, and the threat will be neutralized and eliminated in whatever way the military leadership deems necessary—remotely.”
The weekend of June 27 and 28. Three days of silence at Valdai
Lukashenko and Putin continued their talks in Valdai. However, no joint photos or videos from these meetings were ever published. On Sunday evening, Vladimir Putin announced the results of the negotiations, noting that the “shouts” from [Kyiv] do not cause Lukashenko any panic. He approaches this very calmly, with composure and deliberation. He called the meeting itself productive, noting that Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin had also been invited to participate.
Putin also reported on a new proposal from Ukraine to limit hostilities to only the Donbas, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. However, the Russian president did not specify whether Lukashenko was involved in conveying this proposal, but immediately stated that Russia would not take such steps.
No comments were made by the Belarusian side regarding the meeting with Putin at Valdai. Lukashenko himself flew to Beijing on Sunday evening, where, as it turned out, he had scheduled talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Author: Volha Siamashko
Official Russian and Belarusian sources cited in this text are for informational purposes only. Content from these sources may constitute disinformation or propaganda.
