The situation on the Ukrainian-Russian front is the best it has been for Ukrainians in the last 10 months, writes the Institute for the Study of War. Andriy Klymenko, head of the monitoring group at the Institute for Black Sea Strategic Studies and editor-in-chief of BlackSeaNews, spoke to “Black Sky” about key changes on the front lines.
In brief:
- The Institute for the Study of War reports that Russian troops’ offensive operations on the front lines have not seen significant success recently.
- The front line will continue to shift, but a major breakthrough from either side is unlikely.
- Ukraine has focused on increasing enemy casualties. The goal: to exceed Russia’s mobilization figures.
- Ukraine has surpassed Russia in the number of drones of various types. Statistics show an increase in the number of Russian UAVs destroyed.
- Due to setbacks on the Ukrainian front, Russia may intensify its attacks.
The line of contact has become transparent
The Ukrainian army’s efforts are currently focused primarily on containing the enemy on all fronts. The Institute for the Study of War reports that on April 4 and 5, Russian forces carried out attacks in northern Kharkiv Oblast, in the Sumy, Borovsk, Oleksandrivsk, Huliaipole, Sloviansk, and Novopavlivsk directions, and east of Dobropillia near Novyi Donbas. The Russians continued limited offensive operations in the west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and ground operations in the Kherson direction. However, operations in these areas were unsuccessful. Experts also note an offensive in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, but there is no confirmed progress by Russian forces. Minor advances have also been recorded in the Kupiansk direction. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction.
The head of the monitoring group at the Black Sea Strategic Studies Institute, Andriy Klymenko, notes that the front line will constantly shift, but significant breakthroughs from either side are not to be expected:
“The main change currently underway is that the battlefield is becoming more or less transparent. And everything depends on how each side perceives this line of demarcation. It depends on the quantity and quality of technical means both sides use to assess the situation. In fact, it all comes down to the information displayed on screens in headquarters. This refers to the situation on the ground, in the air, along logistics routes, and even beyond the frontline territories. Therefore, in this situation, fluctuations in the front line are far less significant than they are sometimes made out to be. The front line will fluctuate. Strategic breakthroughs or large-scale shifts spanning tens of kilometers are unlikely in this situation».
Why has the situation at the front improved for Ukrainians if the line of contact has not shifted?
According to DeepStateMap, as of April 8, Russian forces had occupied 72,748 km2 of Ukrainian territory (since February 24, 2022), while Ukrainian forces had recaptured 41,163 km2. As of the beginning of the year (January 1, 2026), the figures were 72,201 km2 and 41,301 km2, respectively, indicating that Russian forces had advanced along the front line by approximately 547 km2. For comparison, the area of Kyiv is 839.2 km2. This indicates a lack of significant shifts on the front line since the beginning of 2026.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on April 3 that, according to intelligence from Ukraine and the United Kingdom, the situation on the front line is the best for Ukraine in the last 10 months (since June 2025), writes ISW.
The head of the monitoring group, Andriy Klymenko, believes that the data on the improvement of the situation for the Ukrainian side on the front lines is based primarily on casualties:
“It’s no secret that the President of Ukraine has tasked the new minister with increasing Russian casualties to 50,000 soldiers per month. Because that is more than the Russian Federation can recruit with the money it pays its contract soldiers. Then Ukraine will be taking out more people each month than they can recruit for big money.”
According to data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance, in March 2026 the Russian army suffered losses of 31,960 personnel. In contrast, the figures for the previous month stood at 26,090 personnel. However, these figures are not record-breaking. In March of last year, Russian troop losses amounted to 41,160 personnel, and the highest figure was recorded in December 2024—48,670.
The front line is held by robots
Andriy Klymenko explains that the main factor in the improvement of Ukrainian positions was the increase in the number of drones:
“In this war, unmanned aerial systems have become the main striking force—including aerial, ground, and naval systems. This isn’t just some passing trend; it’s because neither people nor sophisticated equipment can survive otherwise in the no-man’s-land that exists on both sides of the front line”.
Major General (ret.), Deputy Minister of Defense (2022–2023), and former head of the Yevhen Bereznyak Military-Diplomatic Academy (2014–2015) Volodymyr Gavrylov noted in the program “Ukrainian Focus. Morning,” noted:
“The Kremlin has completely lost touch with what is happening on the battlefield. And on the battlefield, there is a massive replacement of infantry on our side with robotic platforms. And this year, the main combat operations on the Ukrainian side are being conducted by an automated command and control system—of course, with the involvement of personnel, but with minimal use of infantry in the traditional sense.”
Focus group leader Andriy Klymenko emphasizes that Ukrainian forces have begun to outnumber Russian forces in terms of various types of drones, including the introduction of long-range drones and interceptor drones.
According to data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance, in March 2026, the Ukrainian Armed Forces reached a record 59,537 Russian UAVs destroyed. For comparison, the figure stood at 31,225 in February and 4,060 UAVs in March of last year.
What should we expect from the Kremlin if things aren’t going according to plan?
In a statement by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, published by the President’s Office on April 3, he mentions the Russian offensive in March that was successfully thwarted, while also drawing attention to the difficult situation on the front lines:
“The offensive they planned for March was thwarted by the actions of our armed forces. That is precisely why the Russians will now simply intensify their offensive operations,” reports the media outlet UNN.
The head of the monitoring group, Andriy Klymenko, believes that the situation in Russia is not simple, and its complexity is growing with the number of Ukrainian attacks:
“The more long-range weapons or drones Ukraine has that can penetrate air defenses, the more the war begins to affect people in Russia. This situation is extremely disadvantageous for Russia—it has dug in, nothing is working out, there are no offensives or any victories. They wanted a victory in the winter, wanted to freeze us out and halt the economy, and for people to flee. But nothing happened, so they have to do something, and not necessarily in Ukraine.”
Yulia Derdyuk
