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‘Ukraine has done what it was supposed to do,’ President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated regarding the pan-European ‘Freya’ anti-ballistic missile-defence project, urging international partners to aggressively accelerate the system's development toward its first live test.

During a comprehensive update, the Ukrainian president addressed several critical defence and diplomatic developments:

▪️ Air Defence and the Freya Project:
Ten countries are currently participating in the Freya project, with Zelenskyy noting recent detailed discussions with French President Emmanuel Macron and upcoming talks with Norway, a key partner. While long-term defence agreements with Germany for 2027–2028 are secure, Ukraine urgently requires PAC-2 and PAC-3 interceptors now. Zelenskyy pointed out that partners are fully aware of Ukraine's immediate needs, though the United States has redirected most of its PAC-2 and PAC-3 stocks to the Middle East. Operationally, sufficient 20 mm ammunition for F-16s has been secured, domestic production of automated gun turrets is scaling up, and the Ukrainian Air Force is now successfully intercepting 55–60% of all incoming jet-powered Shahed drones.

▪️ Geofenced Starlink Restrictions:
Addressing the controversial speed limits imposed on the satellite network, Zelenskyy revealed that Ukraine recently tested Starlink-equipped vehicles in EU countries at speeds exceeding 180 km/h without any loss of connectivity. In contrast, within Ukraine’s borders, the system completely shuts down at approximately 161 km/h (100 mph), causing operators to lose control of interceptor drones attempting to chase high-speed Russian targets. ‘The restrictions exist. They apply within Ukraine, but not within the territory of European Union member states. This means that this is a planned operation,’ Zelenskyy concluded, noting that Kyiv possesses video evidence of the geographical discrepancy.

▪️ Diplomacy and Negotiations:
Zelenskyy announced a readiness to meet with US negotiators next week in any location and in any format (‘the three of us, the two of us, the four of us, plus five’). However, he emphasized that American leverage must be directed at Putin, rather than pressuring Kyiv to make unfair concessions. He also called on European nations to develop their own independent negotiation strategy. Regionally, he highlighted a highly successful meeting with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk—noting that a strong Kyiv-Warsaw alliance deeply concerns Moscow—and announced upcoming talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan regarding Black Sea maritime and food security.

▪️ Russian Escalation:
Warning against any display of Western weakness, Zelenskyy argued that Putin's ultimate goal remains Ukraine's total annihilation, not merely its political surrender. Anticipating further escalation, he stressed that Russia will maintain its pressure on the Black Sea while continuing systemic strikes on energy infrastructure, water supplies, and bridges. Appealing to both domestic authorities and international partners, he urged: ‘Fewer words — more protection, more action.’

#Ukraine #Freya #Starlink #OSINT #War
No sanctions against Russia can be lifted until Vladimir Putin halts his campaign of violence — a position that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says is fully supported by all of Ukraine’s European partners.

Speaking to journalists, Zelenskyy highlighted a sharp divergence between European and American approaches to applying economic pressure on Moscow. He stated that he hears nothing but words of support from Europe, stressing that absolutely no one among the European partners backs the controversial US–Russia ‘diesel deal’. Instead of easing economic leverage, European nations are actively drafting their next comprehensive package of restrictions.

The president also provided an update on the status of frozen Russian assets, following detailed discussions with EU leaders and officials from Belgium — where the vast majority of these funds are held.

Zelenskyy confirmed that European partners are acutely aware of the risks and possess intelligence indicating that Russia will do everything in its power to regain access to the frozen funds through various third-party intermediaries. However, he offered firm reassurances regarding the security of the capital.

‘Today, this is entirely under Europe’s control. And that means the assets are currently in a safe place,’ Zelenskyy stated, expressing his gratitude to the Belgian prime minister and European allies for their continued vigilance and cooperation.

#Ukraine #EU #Sanctions #OSINT #War
Putin wants Ukraine, not gas pipelines

The New York Times has described one element of the US peace plan: the return of Russian gas to Europe. Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff have been lobbying European officials on the idea, and in September they also raised it directly with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv. Under the proposal, Kyiv would consider reopening the gas pipelines, while Moscow would end the war in return.

Firstly: there is nothing new about this. Discussions about a ‘business-based’ path to peace have been under way since last year. David Ignatius wrote about them only this week. Witkoff and Kushner appear to believe that if Putin is offered enough money, everything can return to the pre-war norm.
It won’t.

Even the NYT acknowledges that the prospect of lucrative business deals with Washington has so far failed to persuade the Kremlin to make concessions on any of its key demands. Putin is not a businessman with whom one can simply haggle over the price. Without achieving his objectives in Ukraine, money alone is unlikely to be enough.

Meanwhile, Washington is paying up front. On Friday, Trump waived new sanctions on Russia provided for by legislation passed by Congress. A week earlier, he lifted restrictions on Russian diesel. Kirill Dmitriev is already declaring that ‘we’ve managed to break the ice’.

America gives. Russia takes. Nothing has yet been given in return.
Secondly: without Europe, there will be no deal. The pipelines end in Germany, not in Texas.

As long as pro-Ukraine centrist governments remain in power across most EU capitals, such an arrangement will face strong resistance. According to the NYT, during the talks in Florida, Günter Sautter, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s security adviser, voiced the strongest objections.

Berlin’s position is straightforward: Russian gas sold through an intermediary — even an American one — remains Russian gas.

The figures are equally clear. In 2021, Russia accounted for 45 per cent of EU gas imports. By 2025, that share had fallen to just 13 per cent. By 2027, the EU is due to phase out Russian gas entirely.

Ukraine halted Russian gas transit in January 2025 and is losing around $1 billion a year as a result. Europe has paid a high price for reducing its dependence on Russian energy. Reversing that process in exchange for Putin’s ‘guarantees’ would therefore be a major political decision, not merely a commercial arrangement.

Thirdly: Washington appears to be betting on political change in Europe.

According to a source quoted by the NYT, the administration assumes that European voters ‘will ultimately want cheaper energy’.
Peskov says that renewed energy cooperation ‘may be even more in the interests of Europeans themselves’.

Alice Weidel tells the Bundestag: ‘We want natural gas and crude oil from Russia.’

Three voices. One message.

But the timetable works against the plan. Germany’s next federal election must take place by March 2029. Trump’s current term ends in January 2029. Nor is it clear what the political balance in Washington or Berlin will look like by then.

The AfD currently leads some polls with around 30 per cent support, but at federal level its support remains below the combined backing for the CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens.

Witkoff and Kushner’s plan is therefore an attempt to buy peace from someone who has so far shown no willingness to sell it on these terms.

The Kremlin counts in square kilometres, not cubic metres.

Article from The New York Times:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/17/us/politics/russia-gas-trump.html


#Russia #Ukraine #USA
‘No, no, no… Of course, certain restrictions are still in place,’ Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said when Kristen Welker of NBC News’s Meet the Press asked whether Starlink service had been fully restored.

Welker also asked who was responsible for the disruption to Starlink and Starshield services and whether the restrictions had been introduced deliberately.

According to Zelenskyy, the instruction to impose the speed restrictions came from the US administration, while SpaceX implemented them technically.

‘I don’t know exactly where it came from, which office, and so on. I think it couldn’t have happened any other way. But, to be honest, I don’t know,’ he said.

Zelenskyy stressed that this was not merely his personal assessment, but also the position of Ukrainian generals and the government.

The allegations were criticised by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who also appeared on Meet the Press.

‘It is very ill-advised of President Zelenskyy to make such allegations,’ Bessent said.

He stressed that President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio had categorically denied that anyone in the Trump administration had ordered such restrictions.

Zelenskyy also addressed the issue of elections in Ukraine:

‘If elections in Ukraine take place during the war, I will of course stand as a candidate. It is my responsibility — I must defend my country from the beginning right through to the end of this war.’

He said that he was not afraid of elections. However, he stressed that holding a democratic and, above all, secure vote would require a ceasefire lasting at least 60 days. Ukraine has communicated this position to the United States.

The president also said that new talks between the Ukrainian and US delegations could take place in Brussels as early as Tuesday or Wednesday.

‘The United States has expressed a willingness to hold such talks. I am very open to this,’ he said.

#Ukraine #USA #Starlink
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that easing sanctions against Russia is a way of putting pressure on Vladimir Putin because, ‘in order to be able to sell diesel, he must end the war’.

A CNN journalist asked whether this meant that the current US position was to put pressure on Ukraine rather than on Russia.

‘That is precisely what putting pressure on Russia means. Russia has no diesel to export. The only way to obtain it is to de-escalate the conflict with Ukraine. This is a novel approach,’ Wright replied.

#Russia #Ukraine
SPECIAL ZONE OF INFLUENCE

In 1980, Shenzhen became China’s first Special Economic Zone. On 18–19 November, Putin wants it to become the first Special Zone of Influence of the 21st century.

According to the WSJ, the Kremlin proposed a trilateral meeting with Xi Jinping to Trump on the sidelines of APEC. Three men, one table, Ukraine on the menu. The idea was floated on 9 October, during the same conversation in which the diesel fuel issue was settled. First diesel, then the fate of a nation. The order of priorities was maintained.

Putin dreams of the ‘spirit of Yalta’. At Yalta, Europe at least had Churchill. In Shenzhen, Europe would not even get a chair. And whoever is not sitting at the table is on the menu. Nihil novi nisi commune consensu: we adopted that principle in Radom in 1505. In Washington, they still have not finished reading it.

Beijing will graciously ‘not object if Trump agrees’. The courtesy of the host. In Taipei, they will be taking note of every word. If decisions about Ukraine can be made without Ukraine, then decisions about Taiwan can be made without Taiwan.

And now Marco Rubio, or the art of answering without answering.

▪️ Evidence that Putin wants to negotiate? ‘This isn’t a criminal case, it’s diplomacy.’ Interesting, given that an ICC arrest warrant for Putin has been outstanding since March 2023. For The Hague, this is a criminal case. For Washington, he is a negotiating partner.

▪️ ‘Neither side is scoring clear victories; both are suffering huge losses.’ Perfect symmetry: the arsonist and the victim of the fire, both covered in soot.

▪️ Kyiv once again without early warning of incoming ballistic missiles? ‘Software issues.’ Missiles are flying towards Kyiv, and all Washington has to offer is a helpdesk response: have you tried switching it off and on again?

▪️ Russian drones over Europe? They are getting through ‘as a result of electronic warfare’. Poor stray drones, losing their way night after night and somehow heading straight for Poland, Romania and other countries. The Kremlin’s version of events, voiced by the US Secretary of State — free of charge.

▪️ Zelenskyy says intelligence is being withheld? He would do better to ‘focus, just as we and Russia are doing, on ending the war’. Just like Russia. The very same Russia that was firing ballistic missiles at Kyiv the previous night. A role model.

▪️ StarShield? Yesterday, Zelenskyy ‘didn’t know what he was talking about’. Today, Ukraine ‘has benefited from it’. A diplomat’s memory is shorter than the flight time of a ballistic missile to Kyiv.

For dessert, Trump is calling for elections in Ukraine. He will no doubt discuss the matter with a man who does not need elections and another who wins them with 87 per cent of the vote. Quite a trio to be giving lessons in democracy.

The only hope lies in 3 November. If Americans show Trump a yellow card in the congressional elections, he will arrive in Shenzhen in a weaker position. Except that the new Congress will not convene until 3 January — and Yalta lasted eight days.

Rubio is right: this is not a criminal case. In a criminal case, the perpetrator is put on trial. Here, it is the victim who is to receive the verdict.

Author: Artur Żak

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/putin-floats-a-summit-with-trump-and-xi-to-decide-ukraines-fate-1cf6acc1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NjdWAsOwl8

#Ukraine #USA #China
According to The Hill, some Republican members of the House of Representatives are warning US President Donald Trump that they will block $350 billion in funding for the Pentagon unless he takes a tougher stance towards Russia.

The Department of Defense had already requested the funds in July in connection with the war with Iran and the need to reform the armed forces. Of the total, $113 billion is to be allocated to expanding production capacity and $102 billion to the development of drones and missile systems. The requested funding forms part of a defence budget totalling $1.5 trillion.

Congressmen Brian Fitzpatrick and Don Bacon have openly raised the possibility of blocking the package. According to Bacon, no bill proposed by Trump will pass during the so-called ‘lame-duck’ session — the period between the congressional elections and the beginning of the new term — unless the administration changes course.

‘The administration’s decision to restrict Ukraine’s access to intelligence and the Starlink network amounts to aiding an aggressor and a war criminal who is bombing cities. Does the administration believe it will gain ANY support during the remainder of the 119th Congress? Their agenda is doomed to failure unless they take a different path,’ Bacon said.

Blocking the bill would require opposition from at least three members of the party controlling the House, but according to The Hill, the number of dissenters is growing. Pro-Ukraine Republicans mentioned in this context include Michael McCaul, Joe Wilson and Dan Newhouse.

Behind closed doors on Capitol Hill, harsh criticism is also being voiced, particularly over the agreement with Russia on diesel fuel.

‘The Capitol will exert sufficient pressure if the administration fails to realise that it must back down, even just a little. We have enough members who are not standing for re-election or who — having lost their seats — will be free from the need to work hand in hand with the president,’ one congressional aide said on condition of anonymity.

Another congressional aide is demanding that Trump reverse his agreement with Putin on diesel:

‘He must reverse this decision. We have passed a bill imposing an energy embargo on Russia. At the same time, why get involved in a war in the Middle East if it leads to higher fuel prices? If you want to bring prices down, sort this out.’

In an effort to secure Republican support for the package before the election, the Pentagon is currently holding a series of closed-door meetings. Those talks, however, may not be enough to persuade members of Congress angered by the administration’s policy towards Moscow.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/6155127-gop-pentagon-funding-trump-russia/

#USA #Ukraine #Russia
OSLO, ST PETERSBURG AND THE SHIFTING SANDS NEAR KYIV

In Oslo, Zelenskyy is sitting down with Witkoff, European officials and NATO representatives to discuss the next version of the ‘peace plan’. At the same time, in the Oval Office, Donald Trump — a man who, by his own count, has already ended eight wars — explains that Ukraine ‘must want’ to end this war and that the problem is the ‘enormous hatred’ between Putin and Zelenskyy.

From this perspective, the aggressor and the victim are simply two men who do not like each other.

Let’s take a look at what we heard today.

▪️ ‘Russia is a huge machine that is constantly moving forward’

ISW data from 16 October: Russia’s net territorial gain from January to the end of September was approximately 144.5 km². Since 1 September, Russian forces have suffered a net territorial loss of approximately 122 km². In early October, they were losing an average of around 7 km² per day.

During this period, Putin announced the capture of 6,500 km² and 310 settlements, while Gerasimov ‘reported’ the capture of Dobropillia. The discrepancy is roughly a factor of 45.

‘Week after week, they’re capturing more and more’?

Someone is indeed capturing territory. Not necessarily the Russians.

▪️ A thousand tanks, a ‘very stupid general’ and quicksand

Trump has been repeating this story since 2025, adding more special effects each time. Today, it featured a ‘perfect concrete highway’, 48 miles per hour, the downpour of the decade and quicksand.

Meanwhile, the Russians really were advancing along roads. A column stretching for dozens of kilometres north of Kyiv became stuck on the highway, as Maxar satellite imagery showed. Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute puts it plainly: the invasion plan called for advancing as quickly as possible along the roads, and it was on those roads that Russian forces suffered heavy losses.

There was mud in the Irpin Valley, but not because of some extraordinary downpour. The Ukrainians flooded the valley themselves by releasing water through the dam at Kozarovychi.

And 48 miles per hour is about 77 km/h, while a T-72 has a maximum road speed of roughly 60 km/h. A column without fuel, meanwhile, travels at exactly zero.

‘I doubt that general is still alive’ is the only sentence in this story that holds up statistically.

▪️ ‘I gave them Javelins’

‘I gave’ — meaning: I sold.

In late 2017, the Trump administration approved the sale. In 2019, it froze approximately $391 million in military aid and, during a phone call with Zelenskyy, Trump asked for a ‘favour’ concerning the Bidens. It ended with his first impeachment.

In the Oval Office version of events, only two words remain:

‘I gave.’

▪️ ‘We gave Ukraine $350 billion’

According to the Kiel Institute, the United States provided approximately €115 billion — around $120–135 billion, depending on the exchange rate.

Congress authorised approximately $175 billion, but that figure also includes, among other things, spending on US forces in Europe and assistance to other countries in the region.

The figure of $350 billion does not appear in any of these totals.

The same applies to the claim that 50 million Soviet citizens died in the Second World War. Estimates put the number at approximately 27 million, including 8–10 million Ukrainians.

Apparently, there is a standard formula in the Oval Office: reality multiplied by two. Sometimes by three.

‘And in return, we got high diesel prices.’

Diesel in the United States — $6.28 per gallon on 8 October — has risen by 70 per cent since 28 February, the day the United States and Israel began the war with Iran.

The culprit, of course, is Zelenskyy.

▪️ ‘Europe has had enough’

Europe allocated more than €200 billion to Ukraine between 2022 and February 2026, including approximately €73 billion in 2025 alone.

New US aid has practically ground to a halt since Trump returned to office.

Europe pays. America complains.

▪️ Diesel, refineries and a week of silence

Here is the timeline:
September: Trump signs legislation targeting Russian energy revenues with sanctions.

9 October: he announces an ‘agreement’ with Putin, and the Treasury Department issues a licence allowing Russian diesel transactions until 7 April 2027.

11 October: an ‘energy truce’ is announced. Russia breaks it almost immediately.

According to Zelenskyy, the Americans had warned that intelligence sharing would be curtailed if Ukraine did not stop striking Russian oil and gas infrastructure.

For a week, Kyiv received no advance warnings of incoming ballistic missiles.

Marco Rubio calls allegations that Washington is putting Ukrainians at risk ‘scandalous’.

Today, the system is working again.

The congressional elections take place on 3 November.

The coincidence of dates is, of course, purely coincidental.

▪️ Watch the headlines

Zelenskyy did not promise that Starlink would be restored within 48 hours.

He agreed with Rubio that they would speak again within 48 hours, by which point the situation surrounding Starlink and missiles for the Patriot system should be clearer.

The rest appears to be the product of simultaneous interpretation and editorial haste.

▪️ St Petersburg: the meeting point

Witkoff is heading to St Petersburg tomorrow with the agreements reached in Oslo.

Jared Kushner reportedly failed to make it to Oslo because he had the flu. He will presumably be back in top form by the time St Petersburg comes around.

In the background is Stephen Hubbard, a retired teacher from Michigan. Russian forces detained him in Izium in 2022, and in 2024 he was sentenced to six years and 10 months in prison for ‘mercenary activity’.

Trump: ‘Stay with me… Keep this question in mind for a few days.’

Working hypothesis, not a conclusion: the Kremlin may release Hubbard at the moment when an image of a recovered American citizen would be most useful politically — two weeks before the election.

There are precedents: Marc Fogel in February 2025 and Robert Gilman in August 2026.

We do not know what will be written on the bill: diesel, refineries or something we cannot yet see.

But there will be a bill.

A released hostage is not a gesture of goodwill. It is an invoice.

Before repeating a figure from a White House press conference, check it.

Today, almost every one of them needed correcting.

The Russian machine is indeed moving forward.

Just not near Dobropillia.

In the Oval Office.

#Ukraine #USA #Russia
Steve Witkoff, US President Donald Trump’s special envoy, has arrived in St Petersburg, where he is due to meet Vladimir Putin, according to Russian state media.

According to Putin’s adviser Yuri Ushakov, the meeting will take place this morning. Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s special envoy for economic affairs, will also participate in the talks. The main topic, as Ushakov put it, will be the ‘Ukrainian conflict’.

Ushakov also said that during earlier negotiations concerning Ukraine, Moscow had maintained no contact with Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Putin is also due to meet Li Qiang, Premier of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, today. China’s second-highest-ranking official is therefore also in St Petersburg.

#Russia #Ukraine #China